Major Ideas
- Until 2007 rural people outnumbered urban people. After 207, urban people will outnumber rural people.
- Peak population growth rate reached 2.1% a year, occurred between 1965 and 1970.
- Population never grew with such speed before 20th century and is never again likely to grow with such speed.
- Descendants will look back into the late 1960's as a most significant demographic event in history.
- Changes in composition and dynamics escape public notice.
- Social Security reforms in the U.S fail to recognize the fundamental population aging.
- The article will focus on four major trends expected to dominate changes in human population.
- Current levels of growth are still greater than any experienced prior to WWII
- First absolute increase in population by one billion took from beginning of time until 19th century.
- Anticipated increase (2.6 billion) exceeds total population of world in 1950 which was 2.5 billion.
- Rapid population growth hasn't ended.
- Most increases aren't occurring in countries with the wealth of the U.S.
- Between 2005 and 2050, population will triple in the poorest countries on Earth.
- All population growth in the next 45 years is expected to happen in today's economically less developed regions.
- By 1999, people were exploiting the environment faster than it could regenerate itself.
- Estimates ranged from less than one billion to more than 1,000 billion.
Summary
As we swell toward nine billion in the next half century, humanity will undergo historic changes in the balance between young and old, rich and poor, urban and rural. Our choices now and in the years ahead will determine how well we cope with our coming of age. 2005 is the midpoint year of a decade that spans three unique, important transitions in the history of humankind. From 2003 on, the median woman worldwide had, and will continue to have, too few or just enough children during her lifetime to replace herself and the father in the following generation. Any person born in 2050 or later likely to live through a doubling of the human population. In contrast, everyone 45 years old or older today has seen more than a doubling of human numbers from three billion in 1960 to 6.5 billion in 2005. The problem is that rapid population growth will boost human numbers by nearly 50 percent, from 6.5 billion now to 9.1 billion in 2050. The plan is to create a bigger pie, and fewer forks, and better manners: intensify human productive capacity through investment in education, health and technology. Human numbers currently increase by 74 million to 76 million people annually, the equivalent of adding another U.S. to the world every four years. Our planet can provide room and food, at least at a subsistence level, for 50 percent more people than are alive now because humans are already growing enough cereal grains to feed 10 billion people a vegetarian diet. Too often attention to long-term sustainability is a diversion from the immediate problem of making tomorrow better than today, a task that does offer much room for science and constructive action. Migration has little immediate effect on global population size but may accelerate the slowing of population growth. From 2005 to 2050, the more developed regions are projected to have about 2.2 million more immigrants than emigrants a year, and the U.S. is expected to receive about half of these.
As we swell toward nine billion in the next half century, humanity will undergo historic changes in the balance between young and old, rich and poor, urban and rural. Our choices now and in the years ahead will determine how well we cope with our coming of age. 2005 is the midpoint year of a decade that spans three unique, important transitions in the history of humankind. From 2003 on, the median woman worldwide had, and will continue to have, too few or just enough children during her lifetime to replace herself and the father in the following generation. Any person born in 2050 or later likely to live through a doubling of the human population. In contrast, everyone 45 years old or older today has seen more than a doubling of human numbers from three billion in 1960 to 6.5 billion in 2005. The problem is that rapid population growth will boost human numbers by nearly 50 percent, from 6.5 billion now to 9.1 billion in 2050. The plan is to create a bigger pie, and fewer forks, and better manners: intensify human productive capacity through investment in education, health and technology. Human numbers currently increase by 74 million to 76 million people annually, the equivalent of adding another U.S. to the world every four years. Our planet can provide room and food, at least at a subsistence level, for 50 percent more people than are alive now because humans are already growing enough cereal grains to feed 10 billion people a vegetarian diet. Too often attention to long-term sustainability is a diversion from the immediate problem of making tomorrow better than today, a task that does offer much room for science and constructive action. Migration has little immediate effect on global population size but may accelerate the slowing of population growth. From 2005 to 2050, the more developed regions are projected to have about 2.2 million more immigrants than emigrants a year, and the U.S. is expected to receive about half of these.
Reflection
The one thing that surprised me the most out of this article is the fact that our plant can provide room and food, for 50 percent more people. That's surprising because how were they able to figure out the earth's carrying capacity, since the population growth will boost human numbers by nearly 50 percent, from 6.5 billion now to 9.1 million in 2050.
The one thing that surprised me the most out of this article is the fact that our plant can provide room and food, for 50 percent more people. That's surprising because how were they able to figure out the earth's carrying capacity, since the population growth will boost human numbers by nearly 50 percent, from 6.5 billion now to 9.1 million in 2050.